Member of the National Health Commission's New Coronary Pneumonia Expert Group, Vice President of Beijing Ditan Hospital

1. The problem of the new crown disease

• The disease itself is not serious, it is very light. From a scientific point of view, the infectivity of omicron to the lungs is very small. No shadow can be found in the lungs of the elderly who do CT.
• Most people have a fever for only one day, rarely more than three days, and the symptoms are very mild.
• The number of cases is not important, the seriousness rate should be paid attention to. Severe disease rate data is at the level of 0.3% at home and abroad, and the whole world Looking at Hong Kong's highest, all the dead are the elderly, all of them have underlying diseases, and they have not been vaccinated.
• The case fatality rate of 0.75% is said to be 7-8 times the mortality rate of influenza. The original text actually refers to the elderly over 55 years old. If you count everyone, it's not that high
• The statistics in the United States are heavy, that is, as long as this person is positive, no matter what the cause of death is counted in the data, diewith In this way, they can ask the government for money and research funds, regardless of whether they have underlying diseases or not, they are all counted together.

1. When can China be liberalized? Several conditions must be met for liberalization:

• There is medicine, it is estimated that half a year is not enough
• The vaccination rate of the elderly is 80%, which is possible in half year
• There is an isolation bed, which is also easy
• There is ICU treatment capacity, this is not very good, the gap with Europe and the United States is too far, and it is not possible in the short term, the equipment is easy to buy, and the training ICU doctor for 5 years.
• The public opinion environment needs to be changed. Now people are afraid of the virus. Once they are released, they will run to the hospital if they have a little fever. Once the above conditions are met, they can release a part of it. For example, we are now 1 point, and the United States is 10 points. We can Gradually release it to 3 minutes and 5 minutes, and the ICU will be busy when there are few severe cases.

1. How to solve the Shanghai predicament? Political factors aside, from a professional point of view, there are compromises:

• The public opinion environment should be well guided. The virus itself is not terrible. This is to prepare for the next step of home isolation.
• The government has completed the entire supporting process for home isolation, such as sending people to do home environment assessment, facility equipment, and standardization of the entire process. Standardization, which is much better than a fangcang, and does not take up resources.
• Severe cases should be sent to the hospital to ensure treatment. New additions can be ignored, just stay at home
• Don't worry about the tight connection, you can close the loop and leave the area, and keep doing nucleic acid In this way, it will basically go down in 1-2 months. Mainly, there is not enough manpower in Shanghai. There are many consequences, and there are also many infections in medical staff. In fact, a home quarantine guide has been issued before, but there is no voice after that. It may be a political issue. It should not be released before the meeting, and it should be strict.

1. How long will it take if Shanghai lies flat? According to foreign experience, generally 70-80 days, that is, about 3 months. It has been 2 months since Shanghai, and it will be almost a month and a half in ten days, but because of human intervention, the ending may be longer. For example, you can see that Lanzhou University's predictions were very accurate before. Now there are many factors of human intervention, and they have retracted the predictions, but in general, the law of the virus is that it will be almost the same for a while. Another thing to be careful about is that there are more overseas cases. If a new virus is mixed in, it will be more troublesome.
2. How is the epidemic in Beijing? Beijing started on the 21st. In the past 4 days, there have been more than 40 official cases. On the one hand, most of them are concentrated in Chaoyang District, and other districts are relatively small, and all the cases can be related to the No. 1 infected person. The transmission chain is clear, there is only one. The bad part is that it spreads widely, and it has been a week, and it is not known who infected No. 1.